中辉期货热卷早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Overall, the report is bearish on most varieties, with "★★" indicating a stronger bearish sentiment and "★" indicating a relatively weaker bearish sentiment or a situation with some potential for short - term rebound. For example,螺纹钢,热卷,焦炭,焦煤 are rated "★★" (bearish), while 铁矿石 is rated "★" (hold short positions), and 锰硅,硅铁 are rated "★" (potential short - term technical rebound) [1]. Core Views - The steel industry's growth - stabilization plan has limited positive impact. The overall supply - demand situation of steel and its raw materials is tending to be loose, and most varieties face downward risks in the medium term [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety Steel Products 螺纹钢 - View: The growth - stabilization plan for the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production is stable at a high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand balance. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and there is a risk of further decline after policy implementation [1][4][5]. 热卷 - View: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply - demand situation is tending to be loose. The growth - stabilization policy for the steel industry has limited positive effects, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - View: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are moderately weak. Macro sentiment has cooled, trading has returned to fundamentals, and ore prices are oscillating weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - View: Spot coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises in certain regions have production - restriction policies, and the supply side has contracted marginally. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and there is a risk of correction in the medium term [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - View: Affected by the parade, safety inspections in some regions have been upgraded, and coking coal production has recovered slowly. Although hot metal production is still at a high level, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have had multiple unsuccessful bids. The steel industry's growth - stabilization policy focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract's premium over the warehouse - receipt cost, there is a risk of downward correction in the medium term [1][14][15]. Ferroalloys 锰硅 - View: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills' restocking in September is about to start, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement trends. The manganese ore quotes from Comilog and Union Mining for China in October are the same as the previous round. The cost side still has some support. The fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a short - term technical rebound, with a cautious bullish view [1][16][17]. 硅铁 - View: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,910 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a short - term technical rebound, with a cautious bullish view [1][16][17].