贵金属日报：美宽松周期开启在即，欧洲经济数据略有好转-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]