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聚烯烃日报:前期检修装置重启,供应端有增加预期-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:42

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market shows a narrow - range downward trend. The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity releases lead to an obvious increase in supply. The supply side has certain pressure as upstream inventory transfers downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term, resulting in limited upward - driving force [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7270 yuan/ton (-17), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6965 yuan/ton (-9). The LL North China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (-110), and the PP East China spot price is 6850 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -90 yuan/ton (-33), the LL East China basis is -80 yuan/ton (-93), and the PP East China basis is -115 yuan/ton (-41) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 315.2 yuan/ton (+17.8), PP oil - based production profit is -324.8 yuan/ton (+17.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is 2.2 yuan/ton (-59.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -150.0 yuan/ton (-20.6), PP import profit is -550.0 yuan/ton (-50.6), and PP export profit is 26.2 US dollars/ton (+6.3) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (-0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory transfers downstream, producers' inventory decreases slightly, and mid - stream inventory accumulates [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]