黑色金属数据日报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways, close out cash-futures arbitrage [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short on rallies [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Consider partial profit-taking on existing short positions, stay on the sidelines for new entrants [8] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market was weak on Monday, with the black sector leading the decline. Steel spot prices fell in both volume and price. The market is awaiting the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment, and is watching for potential mismatches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short-term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are under pressure. The market sentiment is volatile, and the supply is increasing while the demand may not improve significantly. [3] - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated price cuts for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September. [5] - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year will limit the upside potential. [6] Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 1st, the far-month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3165.00, 3314.00, 743.00, 1691.00, and 1167.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -10.00, -45.00, -20.50, -54.00, and -32.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of -0.31%, -1.34%, -2.69%, -3.09%, and -2.67% respectively. [1] - The near-month contract closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 on September 1st were 3115.00, 3303.00, 766.00, 1594.50, and 1118.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 8.00, -53.00, -21.00, -58.50, and -38.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of 0.26%, -1.58%, -2.67%, -3.54%, and -3.29% respectively. [1] Steel - Steel supply remains at a relatively high level. The short-term production restrictions may have a short-lived impact on hot metal. Demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the hot-rolled coil inventory is at a reasonable level. [2] - The steel futures price has been revised down to between the electric furnace loss and the blast furnace cost, and the basis has widened significantly. The valuation of steel futures has been restored to a neutral range. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short-term market sentiment is volatile, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is increasing, while the terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [3] - The industry inventory is still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventory. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Some steel mills in the northwest have initiated price cuts for coke. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the prices of coking coal and coke have declined. [5] - The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of coke price cuts in September, and the futures market is already pricing in this expectation. [5] Iron Ore - The pre-holiday restocking cycle before the National Day provides support for iron ore prices. However, the expected increase in supply in the second half of the year will limit the upside potential. [6] - The market is still debating the impact of anti-monopoly policies, and the focus next week is on the SCO Summit and the parade, with attention on whether the decline in hot metal exceeds expectations. [6]