2025 年 NPL 产品存续期表现：发行规模持续增长，回收进度存在波动

Issuance and Market Trends - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products reached CNY 286.51 billion from 2016 to July 2025, with a significant increase in 2025, where 87 NPL products were issued, marking a 45.00% year-on-year growth[4] - The issuance scale for NPL products in the first seven months of 2025 was CNY 39.98 billion, representing a 69.77% increase compared to the previous year[4] - Major state-owned banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for 40.58% of the total issuance in 2025[5] Recovery and Performance - Pure credit NPL products showed reasonable fluctuations in recovery progress, while collateralized NPL products exhibited significant uncertainty in repayment[18] - The average deviation of actual recovery from predicted recovery for pure credit NPL products was -11.24%, with most products falling within a range of -20% to 20%[22] - As of July 31, 2025, 41.54% of the NPL products issued in 2024 had completed repayment of their priority securities, with an average repayment time of approximately 9 months, an increase from 6.6 months in the previous year[25][27] Future Outlook - The NPL product market is expected to continue expanding, driven by the release of asset quality pressure in the banking sector and supportive policies, with a projected 50% increase in registration quotas for credit NPL products in 2025[30][32] - The recovery progress of pure credit NPL products is expected to remain stable, while collateralized NPL products will face ongoing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and judicial factors[33] - The overall repayment situation for priority securities is good, but the repayment speed has slowed compared to previous years, indicating potential future pressure on certain projects[34]