Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index futures [1][5] - Bearish: Live pigs, eggs [1][40][42] - Neutral: Treasury bonds, double cokes, rebar, glass, copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, silver, gold, PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, polyolefins, cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, apples, dates, corn, soybean meal, oils [1][5][7][9][10][11][15][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][29][31][33][34][35][36][42][44][46] Core Views - A shares opened higher in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering its August losses and the ChiNext Index hitting a new high. The market is expected to continue to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, the approaching Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the slight increase in the August PMI [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain stable in the short term, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential for an increase in risk appetite [5]. - The coal market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak downstream demand and a lack of clear supply - demand signals [7]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise in September. The market is waiting for signs of demand recovery [7]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short term due to improved demand and positive macro - sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the expected increase in demand during the peak season and the high level of domestic maintenance in September and October [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the approaching peak season and the improvement in downstream demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - The nickel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - The precious metals market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in September. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the high inventory and the uncertain export situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the rigid demand from the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to continue to rise due to the high raw material prices and the decline in inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1680 - 1720 support [28]. - The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation [30]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the global supply - demand situation and the macro - environment. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - The PTA market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to rise due to the good inventory reduction and the possible suspension of OPEC's production increase in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - The apple market is expected to be strong in the short term, with prices likely to remain high due to the limited supply of high - quality early - maturing apples [36]. - The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable due to the normal progress of the sugar - increasing stage and the stable demand [36]. - The live pig market is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to be limited by the high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by the new crop supply and the cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - The soybean meal market is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - The oil market is expected to be in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by various factors. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Index Futures: The A - share market rose on Monday. The market is expected to strengthen in the medium to long term due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut, policy expectations, and economic data [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market continued to recover on Monday, but the upside potential is limited due to the lack of strong support and the potential increase in risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - Double Cokes: The coal market is "mostly down and less up", with weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - Rebar: The rebar futures price fell on Monday. The market is expected to be volatile in September, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to trade in bands [7]. - Glass: The supply is stable, and the demand has improved. The market is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro - factors and is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels [10]. - Aluminum: The price of bauxite has increased, and the demand for downstream products is improving. It is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [16]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16]. - Silver and Gold: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the expected Fed interest rate cut. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and uncertain exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5000 - level pressure [19]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the alumina industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 - level support [21]. - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to be weak in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - level pressure [24]. - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to be strong in the short term due to high raw material prices and declining inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15600 - level support [26]. - Urea: The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to fall first and then rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the price support level [28]. - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to be stable in the short term, with limited upside potential due to high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes [30]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by the approaching peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the specified price ranges [31]. - Soda Ash: It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to hedge risks [34]. - PTA: The PTA market has seen good inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4900 - level pressure [34]. - Apples: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term [36]. - Dates: The date market is expected to be stable in the short term, with prices likely to remain stable [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: The live pig market is under pressure due to large supply. It is recommended to take corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies [38]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rallies [41]. - Corn: The corn market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with prices likely to be affected by new crop supply and cost. It is recommended to sell on rallies [42]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market has limited upside potential in the short term, with prices likely to be supported by cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 - level support [44]. - Oils: The oil market is in a high - level adjustment phase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the end of the adjustment and then buy [46].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250902
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-02 06:05