申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are showing strong upward trends. Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor and challenge the Fed's independence has made the market uneasy. The USGS's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has raised concerns about silver import tariff risks. Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting and the disappointing July non - farm payrolls data have increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the split within the Fed, the rebound of US inflation data in July, and the easing of geopolitical risks have restricted the upward space of gold to some extent. The overall trade environment has deteriorated, and the long - term drivers of gold still have support. Currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, and the market is focusing on this week's non - farm payrolls data [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 801.58 and 803.38 respectively, with price increases of 1.02 and 1.18, and price increase rates of 0.13% and 0.15%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9836.00 and 9855.00 respectively, with price increases of 61.00 and 57.00, and price increase rates of 0.62% and 0.58% [2] - Position and Volume: The positions and trading volumes of沪金2510 are 140,691 and 313,792, and those of沪金2512 are 178,201 and 132,324. The positions and trading volumes of沪银2510 are 294,815 and 884,674, and those of沪银2512 are 322,354 and 301,127 [2] - Spot Premium: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 7.10 and - 8.90, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 84.00 and - 103.00 [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The price of Shanghai Gold T + D is 794.48, with a price increase of 12.78 and a price increase rate of 1.63%. The price of London gold is 797.53, with a price increase of 7.36 and a price increase rate of 0.93%. The price of London silver is 40.67, with a price increase of 0.98 and a price increase rate of 2.48%. The price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 9752.00, with a price increase of 387.00 and a price increase rate of 4.13% [2] - Price Spreads: The price spread between沪金2512 and沪金2510 is 1.80 (previous value: 1.64), the price spread between沪银2512 and沪银2510 is 19 (previous value: 23), the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 81.47 (previous value: 83.47), the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.11 (previous value: 7.05), and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.46 (previous value: 7.34) [2] Inventory - Changes: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 120 kg to 39,744 kg, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 11,231 kg to 1,207,227 kg, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 161,216.26 ounces to 38,925,853 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,037,585 ounces to 518,232,360 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - Changes: The US dollar index decreased by 0.19% to 97.6793, the S&P index decreased by 0.64% to 6460.26, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.24% to 4.23, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.16, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate increased by 0.02% to 7.1221 [2] Derivatives - Changes: The position of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the position of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 1451 to 32,895 [2] Macroeconomic News - US News: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall. The nominee for the Fed governor, Milan, is likely to take office before the September Fed meeting [3] - European News: ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. The acting governor of the Slovenian central bank said that the ECB's "easing cycle has ended". The final value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7, and the euro - zone unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2%, tying the historical low set in November 2024 [3]