铅锌日评：区间整理-20250902

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are expected to remain range - bound [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, the dovish remarks from Powell and increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September provide some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - Price and Spread: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat, the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.15%. The Shanghai lead basis increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Other spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 9.12% to 39,854 lots, while the open interest increased by 3.73% to 51,017 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 12.39% to 0.78 [1]. - Inventory: LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 259,550 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.91% to 56,801 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase as some refineries resume production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited supplies, some refineries cut or stopped production. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - News: On September 1, 2025, the new national standard for electric bicycles was officially implemented. On August 29, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.07 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 800 lots to 161,075 lots [1]. Zinc Market - Price and Spread: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose by 0.41%, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract rose by 0.16%. The Shanghai zinc basis increased by 55 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton. Zinc ingot premiums in different regions decreased [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract increased by 0.05% to 139,706 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.35% to 116,185 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 0.40% to 1.20 [1]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 55,875 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 37,957 tons. As of September 1, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations increased to 146,300 tons [1]. - Fundamentals: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, but demand is affected by the off - season and environmental restrictions in the north, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is limited [1]. - News: A zinc smelter in Guangxi will stop production for maintenance from September 7 due to a temporary interruption in zinc concentrate supply, with an expected impact of 10,000 tons [1].