宝城期货资讯早班车-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the significant increase in the return of risk assets, the vicious cycle of low returns and slow asset appreciation caused by the severe bias of residents' wealth allocation towards deposits and fixed - income in the past few years will be reversed. Residents' wealth allocation will enter a new cycle, with the proportion of equity assets rising continuously in the long term, which will become the underlying force for China's economic recovery and reshape the Chinese financial market [21]. - The PMI data in August showed some improvement but the amplitude was average. Production was resilient, but demand needed further observation. The macro - narrative presented positive changes, which still required actual data verification. The bond market was still slightly unfavorable until the end of October, with interest rates having an upper limit. It was recommended to defend and seize opportunities in fluctuations and over - adjustments, and look for counter - attack opportunities after the end of October [21]. - The adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and allocation opportunities should be observed. As the stock market valuation rises, the relative cost - effectiveness of stocks and bonds will gradually change. The current interest rate adjustment space is limited, and the upper limits of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are still around 1.75 - 1.8% and 2.05 - 2.1% respectively [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. The growth rate of M1 increased significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year, while the growth rate of M0 decreased slightly [1]. - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact. Credit card installment business was not within the scope of interest subsidy [2]. - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development, planning to strengthen cooperation in digital economy development policies and new - generation communication technology [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures reached a new high of $3557.1 per ounce. The rise was driven by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, weak dollar, and central banks' gold purchases [3]. - On September 1st, international silver prices soared, with the COMEX silver price reaching $41.64 per ounce and the London spot silver price reaching $40.754 per ounce, a 14 - year high. The rise was driven by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion needs [3]. - Tianqi Lithium completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and started a 50 - ton pilot project [3][4]. - In August 2025, the average price of tungsten powder in the Yangtze River reached over 575,000 yuan per ton, with a significant monthly increase [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - August, the price of rebar decreased by 0.2% month - on - month to 3261 yuan per ton, while the price of coke increased by 2.96% month - on - month to 1377.7 yuan per ton, a new high since mid - February [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 1st, Syria's oil export and the suspension of oil sales to India tightened the crude oil supply, and the weak dollar supported oil prices. US sanctions on Brazil and Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy facilities also affected the market [6][7][8]. - HSBC maintained the Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price at $65 per barrel, with risks from OECD inventory increases or OPEC+ production increases [7]. - In August, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe decreased by 2% month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 1st, the central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit achieved multiple results, including signing the Tianjin Declaration and approving the 2026 - 2035 development strategy [12]. - By the end of July, the bond market custody balance exceeded 190 trillion yuan, indicating the optimization of the financing structure and the enhancement of the financial system's resilience [12]. - Multiple banks in Shanghai adjusted mortgage interest rates, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home loans [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, spot bonds and futures warmed up, with most bond yields falling by about 1bp, and treasury bond futures rising [16]. - The central bank's reverse repurchase decreased and turned to net withdrawal, but the inter - bank funds were generally stable [16]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was adjusted down by 42 points [20]. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, and most non - US currencies rose [20]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different institutions had different views on the bond market, including the long - term rise of equity asset allocation, the short - term unfavorable situation of the bond market, and limited adjustment space [21][22]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Monday, the A - share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The turnover was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous and AI hardware sectors were strong, while the satellite Internet and large - finance sectors were weak [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.15%, with the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous sectors rising strongly and the automobile industry chain falling. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 119.42 billion Hong Kong dollars [26]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimized the margin collateral arrangement, adjusting the interest payment and fees of cash collateral and reducing the financing cost of non - cash collateral [27].