国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250902

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: September 2, 2025 [1] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, PX and asphalt have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; PP, glass, benzene - ethylene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of - 1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook; while most other commodities have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10][21][39][54][66][69] Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene - ethylene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 reverse spread trading, and going long on PX and short on EB. The price has limited downside space, and it's advisable to go long on dips before mid - September. An expected increase in supply in September and new PTA production capacity will keep the supply - demand in a tight - balance [5][10] - PTA: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner with limited downside. The polyester start - up rate is rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking pattern. The basis and spread are supported, but the factory hedging may suppress the price. Focus on the 11 - contract strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX [11] - MEG: The price is in a volatile range, and it's not advisable to chase the long side when the price is above 4550. Suggest going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the port is in a stocking pattern. The overall price support is limited [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It will run in a volatile manner. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is average, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand and price [13][16] - Synthetic Rubber: It will run in a range following the macro - sentiment in the short term. The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][20] Asphalt - The factory inventory is decreasing, and the crude oil price is strong. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed, and the basis and spread have also fluctuated. The domestic asphalt production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][34] LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The PE demand is improving due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently, affecting the futures price. The supply pressure may be relieved in the medium term [35][36] PP - In the short term, it will be volatile, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but the cost uncertainty and policy factors should also be considered [39][40] Caustic Soda - It will have a wide - range volatile movement. The export is the main factor restricting the price increase, while the domestic demand is stable, and the alumina production may drive the domestic 50 - alkali market. The market pressure will ease after the 09 - contract warehouse receipt cancellation [43][45] Pulp - It will run in a volatile manner. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high port inventory and limited downstream procurement. The foreign quotation and cost support limit the downside space [49][52] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The futures price has increased, but the spot market is weak, with the main - producing area's price slightly decreasing and the overall trading being average [54][55] Methanol - It will run in a volatile manner. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, with high port inventory and upstream selling pressure. In the medium term, it may enter a range - bound pattern due to policy support [58][61] Urea - It will run in a volatile manner in the short term. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak, but the policy uncertainty makes the market investment conservative. The price has pressure above 1800 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the downward space is also limited [63][64] Benzene - Ethylene - It is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it will be volatile. The market is in a situation of long - short confrontation, with the industry expecting the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the port inventory is increasing, and the fundamental pressure is large [66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The price is slightly declining, the device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing on demand [68][69] LPG and Propylene - LPG: Supply and demand remain loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The CP paper - cargo prices have increased, and there are many domestic device - maintenance plans [72][77] - Propylene: The spot price is still supported, but there is a risk of decline. The spread between different regions and contracts has changed, and the start - up rates of related industries have also fluctuated [72] PVC - The price trend is under pressure. The supply is high, the domestic and foreign trade demands are not improved, and the inventory is increasing. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the incentive for production reduction [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It will have a narrow - range volatile movement with a weak trend. The futures and spot prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed [80][81] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session opened higher, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the foreign market continued to decline [80][81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It will have a volatile movement. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the freight - rate indices of European and US - West routes have shown different trends. The current - period freight rates of different carriers on the European line are also provided [83]