流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：9月资金面有压力吗

Core Views - The report indicates that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased significantly following Powell's speech on August 22, which may also raise expectations for a rate cut by the People's Bank of China. However, due to factors such as pressure on bank net interest margins, the likelihood of a rate cut within the year is considered low, although a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is anticipated [2][10] - The liquidity environment remains generally loose, with short-term interest rates showing little change. Key indicators to monitor in September include the maturity of 2.27 trillion yuan in pledged repos at the beginning of the month, a noticeable increase in the maturity of certificates of deposit starting from the second week, and the seasonal pressures at the end of the month [2][10] Government Debt Issuance - It is projected that government debt issuance in September 2025 will range from 2.11 to 2.26 trillion yuan, with net financing expected to be between 0.94 and 1.10 trillion yuan, which is lower than the 1.33 trillion yuan in August. Specifically, the issuance of treasury bonds is expected to be 1.43 trillion yuan, with net financing of 0.67 trillion yuan, while local government bonds are expected to be issued between 0.68 and 0.83 trillion yuan, with net financing of 0.27 to 0.43 trillion yuan [3][17] - The report highlights that the issuance of local government bonds has been notably diverse since August 8, with 226 bonds issued totaling 848.1 billion yuan, averaging 3.753 billion yuan per bond. The report notes that the actual issuance levels for various maturities have shown a tendency to increase, particularly for 15-year bonds, which have the highest actual spread at around 30 basis points [4][26] Local Government Debt Strategy - The report indicates that the spread between 15-year local government bonds and treasury bonds reached 31 basis points at the end of August, marking a 100% percentile level since 2024. Funds began net buying local government bonds in the last week of August, primarily focusing on the longer end of the curve, specifically 15-20 year bonds [5][58] - The report suggests that under the current treasury yield levels, 10-year local government bonds yielding over 2% and 30-year bonds yielding over 2.3% are considered high and may present investment opportunities. Specific bonds identified as having value include 25 Guangdong Bond 42, 25 Guangdong Bond 41, 25 Jiangsu Bond 42, and 25 Sichuan 56 [5][58] Money Market Rate Tracking - The report notes that the 1-year large bank negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) rate increased from 1.63% at the beginning of August to 1.67% by the end of the month. The maturity scale of NCDs is expected to rise further to 3.55 trillion yuan in September, which is the second-highest historical level, indicating increased pressure for renewal [20][28] Open Market Operations - As of August 29, the total balance of the central bank's open market operations was 134.021 trillion yuan, with pledged repos at 22.731 trillion yuan and medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 55.500 trillion yuan. The report anticipates continued provision of medium-term liquidity support in September [11][39]