美豆丰产预期，油脂承压震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent soybean harvest season in the US is approaching, with favorable weather conditions in the production areas, gradually realizing the expected high - yield, and the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China - US negotiation is the main focus for the future market. The consumption of palm oil during the two festivals has limited driving force, and the overall price of edible oils will continue to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9384.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8348.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9801.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9310.00 yuan/ton, a change of +110.00 yuan or +1.20%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 74.00, a change of +42.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8470.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 122.00, a change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.10%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 99.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary - As of August 29, 2025 (Week 35), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.01 tons, an increase of 2.80 tons or 4.81% compared to the previous week [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high, and it is expected that oil mills will maintain a high operating rate, with the monthly soybean crushing volume around 9.5 million tons [2] - In August, Argentina's agricultural exports dropped by 25% year - on - year, and the total export value of the agricultural sector was 1.82 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 55% compared to July [2] - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased again, reaching a high in more than two months. As of the end of Week 35 (August 30), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 67.26%, an increase of 3.23% compared to the previous week's 64.03%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.5148 million tons, an increase of 120,900 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 16,900 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 2.4979 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume will remain high at 2.5213 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.44% [2]