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国投期货农产品日报-20250902
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-02 07:00

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★☆☆ [1] - 豆粕: ★☆☆ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★☆☆ [1] - 菜粕: ★☆☆ [1] - 菜油: ★☆☆ [1] - 玉米: ★☆☆ [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market of agricultural products is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends in the short - term and long - term, and some products may be suitable for long - term investment, while others need to wait for better opportunities [2][3][4] Summaries by Category Soybean - related - Soybean (Domestic): After the decline in prices digested the negative news, the short positions in the domestic soybean main contract decreased, and the price rebounded. The policy - side is holding auctions, with an increase in the auction success rate. The marginal supply in the market has increased, and market participants will conduct competitive procurement this week. The domestic soybean crop is expected to be good, and new soybeans will be on the market in late September. Attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season soybeans [2] - Soybean & Bean Meal: Internationally, due to bio - diesel policies, the global oil market is strong, which may drive up soybean crushing volume, resulting in an "oil - strong, meal - weak" situation. In the domestic market, the US tariff policy will continue to affect the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The high cost of imported Brazilian beans limits the decline of domestic bean meal. Although the soybean arrival volume in the next three months is sufficient, there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3] Oil - related - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to supply and has support from demand. The short - term domestic soybean supply is still loose, and the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. The supply - demand situation of palm oil in Malaysia has improved, and that in Indonesia is better. Considering the long - term development of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia, investors can consider buying bean and palm oil at low prices while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed - related - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The price of rapeseed futures in the international market is under short - term pressure as rapeseeds in Canada, the EU, and Australia are about to be harvested. The supply of rapeseed will be relatively abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The short - term futures market may stabilize, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of the international rapeseed harvest [6] Other Agricultural Products - Corn: The Dalian corn futures have shown signs of stabilization. The new - season corn crop is expected to be good due to favorable weather. Some traders in northern ports have expanded their warehouses in advance. The short - term market may be stable, and the long - term market may be weak [7] - Pigs: On Monday, the main contract of live - hog futures opened high and closed low. The pig - to - grain ratio is still below 6:1. The supply of live - hogs is expected to increase in September, but demand may also be supported by festivals. The price of live - hogs may still face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to policies and the release of supply [8] - Eggs: On Monday, the egg futures market continued to increase positions. The spot price of eggs did not rise significantly during the back - to - school season. Due to continuous losses, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the number of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. If the spot price of eggs does not rebound in September, more old hens may be culled around the Mid - autumn Festival. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, investors can consider going long, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [9]