烧碱维稳，PVC延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector and follows the decline. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. The recommendation for PVC is to be cautiously bearish. [3][5] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. Although the start - up rate has decreased, the demand has certain characteristics affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the recommendation for caustic soda is to be cautiously bullish. [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4894 yuan/ton (-13); the East China basis is -224 yuan/ton (+3); the South China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+3). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (-10); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (-10). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -399 yuan/ton (-176); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -628 yuan/ton (-36); the PVC export profit is 16.7 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6); the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4); the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 75.24% (-0.83%); the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 68.66% (-3.78%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 73.33% (-1.69%). [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9). [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2735 yuan/ton (+65); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -16 yuan/ton (-65). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 784.5 yuan/ton (+40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-20.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1398.45 yuan/ton (-30.00). [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22); the caustic soda start - up rate is 82.40% (-0.80%). [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%); the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 64.73% (+0.87%); the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 86.02% (-0.20%). [2] Market Analysis PVC - Affected by the black sector, PVC follows the decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and cost factors. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term due to new production capacity and more production resumptions. The demand is weak with low downstream start - up and weakening exports. The inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. The start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. The demand is affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period. [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a reverse spread when the PVC01 - 05 spread is high. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a positive spread when the SH10 - 01 spread is low. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5]