化工日报：青岛港口库存继续小幅去化-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for both RU and NR, as well as for BR [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. The inventories at Qingdao Port and in the society are showing a slight downward trend. With the upcoming traditional peak season for downstream industries, attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories [8] - For BR, some devices have maintenance plans in September, and the overall supply - demand situation may show a slight improvement. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and there is still cost - side support [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: From January to July 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: From January to July 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - China's rubber tire exports: From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,274 yuan/ton (up 49.74 yuan), the NR basis was 375 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 Thai baht/kg (down 0.10 Thai baht), the price of Thai latex was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (up 0.55 Thai baht), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (down 0.55 Thai baht) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (down 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (down 0.90%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (down 14,554 tons), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (down 3,908 tons), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (up 170 tons), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (up 805 tons) [6][7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the BR basis was - 45 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,293 yuan/ton (down 217 yuan) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 75.85% (up 6.70%) [7] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,620 tons (down 790 tons), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,100 tons (up 1,900 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. Monitor the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - side support still exists [8]