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欧洲专题系列1:中欧关系的演变及其原因
NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-09-02 07:14
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Europe is experiencing a decline due to multiple crises, including economic slowdown, high debt, and lack of strategic investment in key areas, along with political fragmentation and loss of military and strategic autonomy [1][2][14] - The Sino - European relationship has gone through a process of warming up first and then cooling down, with the turning point around 2017 - 2018, which is related to the start of Trump's first term and the first round of the China - US trade war [11][30] - The negative turn in Europe's attitude towards China is due to the intensifying industrial competition, especially in the fields where China has broken Europe's monopoly [33][36] - China is mainly in direct competition with European powerful countries, and the relationship with these countries will remain more competitive than cooperative [44][48] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 With 2017 - 2018 as the turning point, the Sino - European relationship has experienced a process of warming up first and then cooling down - Diplomatic interaction: Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1975, the Sino - European relationship has gone through four stages: the initial establishment stage (1975 - 2000) with limited interaction; the rapid development stage (2001 - 2010) with increasing high - level exchanges but affected by external factors; the in - depth cooperation stage (2011 - 2020) with more exchanges but emerging industrial competition; and the strategic adjustment stage (2021 - present) with deteriorating relations and more crisis - control communication [17][18][19] - Investment relationship: It can be divided into five stages: the budding stage (1975 - 1990) with mainly European unilateral investment in China; the high - speed growth stage (1991 - 2008) with continued European investment and the beginning of Chinese enterprises' mergers and acquisitions in Europe; the adjustment and transformation stage (2009 - 2016) with a slowdown in European investment in China and the rise of Chinese investment in Europe; the rule - gaming stage (2017 - 2020) with stricter European review of Chinese mergers and acquisitions; and the stage of deepening competition and cooperation (2021 - present) with further restrictions on Chinese investment in Europe [22][24][25] - The number of foreign enterprises in China has also shown a similar trend of change, with growth stagnating in recent years [28][29] 3.2 Behind Europe's negative attitude towards China is the intensifying industrial competition - Since 2018, China has broken Europe's monopoly in fields such as 5G, photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and semiconductor, leading to an expanding trade deficit between the two sides in key areas [33] - Public opinion in European countries towards China has become more negative since around 2018, which has laid the foundation for the Sino - European trade war [36] - The Sino - European trade war started in April 2024, and the core areas of the trade war include new energy, high - end manufacturing, agricultural products, digital economy, and some industrial products [40][42] 3.3 China is mainly in direct competition with European "powerful countries" - China is in direct competition with first - class powerful countries like Germany, France, and the UK, and some relatively strong first - class countries such as the Netherlands, Italy, and Nordic countries, in fields such as new energy, high - end manufacturing, and digital economy [44] - The competitive relationship between China and these European powerful countries will make it difficult for a "full reconciliation" to occur, and future Sino - European cooperation may focus more on second - and third - tier medium - powerful European countries [48]