2025年9月小品种策略：配置价值显现，但建议等待更好交易时机

Group 1 - The report suggests that the overall bond market is expected to gradually stabilize within a narrow range, with opportunities for short-term credit investments within 3 years, while recommending to wait for better trading opportunities for longer durations [4][9]. - The sentiment in the credit bond market has improved after the short-end correction in mid to late August, but there remains caution regarding longer durations due to weak stability in fund liabilities and strong liquidity demands [4][9]. - The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may weaken, which could be relatively favorable for the bond market, allowing for potential recovery opportunities [4][9]. Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond sector, there is potential for configuration value, but it is not yet the right time for trading; only institutions with stable liabilities are recommended to participate cautiously [4][9]. - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in August saw a slight decrease, with a total of 141 bonds issued, raising 146 billion yuan, while the repayment scale increased significantly, leading to a net inflow of only 8.6 billion yuan [17][20]. - The report highlights that the financing costs for high-rated issuers have increased, with AAA and AA-rated bonds seeing interest rates rise by 9 basis points and 13 basis points respectively [17][20]. Group 3 - The ABS market is expected to face challenges in seeing opportunities for spread compression in September, but there is a preference for selecting ABS with a stronger safety margin, particularly from urban investment and large central enterprises [12][4]. - The report notes that the liquidity in the ABS market is weakening, and the premium over urban investment bonds has remained stable, with a 3-year spread fluctuating between 25 to 30 basis points [12][4]. - The recommendation is to prioritize ABS types with lower risk, such as revenue rights and affordable housing, while considering the risk appetite and stability of liabilities for other types [12][4]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the secondary market for perpetual bonds is experiencing significant pressure on yield spreads, particularly for medium to long-term bonds, with credit spreads widening [28][29]. - The yield for high-grade medium to long-term perpetual bonds has increased significantly, with the AA-rated 5-year urban investment yield rising by up to 16 basis points [28][29]. - The report emphasizes that the market is currently under pressure from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with weak sentiment leading to upward trends in yields [28][29].