航运衍生品数据日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The EC market is rising. The main reasons are that the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's tariff measures exceeded the scope of authority, but the relevant tariff collection will still be carried out normally before October 14. Meanwhile, the conflict between the Houthis and Israel has reignited, which is beneficial to the far - month contracts [7]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rates accelerated in September, which may put pressure on MSK to cut prices to attract cargo. It's necessary to focus on whether MSK will follow the price cut and whether the freight rates can stop falling in September. In the short term, the freight rates may fall below 1300. The price of the December contract is likely to show a weak and volatile trend. The strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. 3. Directory - based Summaries 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The present values of SCFI, CCFI, SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1445, 1156, 1923, 1013, 2866, 1481, 1773, and 2145 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1415, 1175, 1644, 1041, 2613, 1668, 1990, and 2225, with the respective growth rates of 2.10%, - 1.58%, 16.97%, - 2.69%, 9.68%, - 11.21%, - 10.90%, and - 3.60% [5]. - Forward Freight Agreement Index: The present values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1428.5, 1602.1, 1291.4, 1640.9, 1461.3, and 1241.8 respectively. The previous values are 1376.1, 1561.0, 1261.0, 1562.7, 1408.1, and 1204.4, with the growth rates of 3.81%, 2.63%, 2.41%, 5.00%, 3.78%, and 3.11% [5]. - Positions: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 890, 274, 52271, 16495, 4846, and 7069 respectively. The previous positions are 867, 256, 53260, 17323, 4689, and 7136, with the changes of 23, 18, - 989, - 828, 157, and - 67 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The present values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are - 349.5, 179.6, and 399.1 respectively. The previous values are - 301.7, 154.6, and 358.3, with the changes of - 47.8, 25.0, and 40.8 [5]. 3.2 Market News - Yemen's Houthi rebels vowed to avenge the death of several important members in Israeli air strikes, and the conflict between the Houthis and Israel may intensify [6]. - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exclusion list measures for China in the Section 301 investigation from August 31, 2025, to November 2025 [6]. - The US government plans to expand national security tariffs in the next few months, covering industries such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors, heavy trucks, and commercial aircraft [6]. - Container ships can reach 10 million TEU, and alternative - fuel - powered ships will dominate future shipping capacity. The average age of the global fleet is 13.7 years (11 years weighted by TEU), and some segments, especially medium - sized ships, are aging rapidly [6].