新能源及有色金属日报：北方消费受影响减产，锌锭下调贴水-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and if the consumption peak expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. Key Points by Category Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $6.12 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,100 yuan per ton, with a change of 90 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,100 yuan per ton, with a change of 100 yuan and a spot premium of - 75 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan per ton, with a change of 100 yuan and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On September 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,250 yuan per ton and closed at 22,175 yuan per ton, a change of 80 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 139,706 lots, and the open interest was 116,185 lots. The highest price was 22,300 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,125 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 146,300 tons, with a change of 18,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory is 55,875 tons, a change of - 625 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and if the consumption peak expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]