航运日报：揽货压力仍存，关注马士基9月下半月第一周开价-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping industry is currently facing significant cargo - collection pressure. The freight rate center has declined, and the 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated while the 12 - month contract has the potential for long - allocation after the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. - The EC2510 contract is relatively safe to short at high prices, but extreme short - chasing is not advisable. For the 12 - month contract, attention should be paid to the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and long - allocation can be gradually carried out as the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 36 - week price is 1315/2210, and the 37 - week price is 1140/1900 (currently up to 1170/1960). HPL - SPOT's price for the second half of September is 1135/1835 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels stated that they would retaliate for the death of several important members in an Israeli air strike, which may affect shipping in the region [2]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - China - European basic port capacity: The average weekly capacity in September is 294,700 TEU, and in October is 276,600 TEU. There are 3 blank sailings in September and 10 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in October. HPL has announced two additional vessels for October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. The current freight rate center has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the 10 - month contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $1900/FEU. Attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price [4]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If vessels on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: As of September 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,845.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 43,901.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [6]. - Spot market: On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1013.90 points [6].