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化工日报:焦煤大幅下跌,EG偏弱运行-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-02 07:29

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Focus on cost changes under low inventory from August to September as the balance sheet shows a loose balance with minor supply - demand contradictions [3] Core View - The EG main contract closed at 4427 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.60%). The spot basis in East China was 77 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. Due to a significant decline in coking coal at the cost end and concentrated warrant registration, the EG price showed a weak trend [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -47 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -16 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 5 tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 9.8 tons [1] - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly dropping in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance with minor supply - demand contradictions [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4427 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.60%). The spot basis in East China was 77 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -47 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -16 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 5 tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 9.8 tons [1]