新能源及有色金属日报：9月精铜产量或受较大干扰，铜价逐步走强-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [8] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and the intensive maintenance period of smelters. Although the downstream performance is not outstanding at present, the support effect of the power grid on demand still exists. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,670 yuan/ton and closed at 79,780 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,640 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 150 - 320 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average premium of 235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,710 - 80,090 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and the high copper price suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. It is expected that the social inventory in Shanghai will continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the short - term premium will remain stable [2] Important Information Summary - Tariff: Trump said India proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it was too late. Treasury Secretary Besent said Trump might declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan might include exemptions for building materials. The Supreme Court is expected to support Trump's tariff policy [3] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the initial value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [3] - European employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, and the number of unemployed decreased by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [3] Mine End - Affected by the BHP tender result, many traders postponed quotes and considered adjusting the copper concentrate TC/RC to above - 40 dollars/dry ton. Some traders quoted - 40 dollars for clean ore and Peruvian mixed ore. Ivanhoe Mines lowered its 2025 copper production forecast by 28% to 37 - 420,000 tons, and Hudbay Minerals restarted the Snow Lake mine in Canada and is expected to reach full production in early September [4] Smelting and Import - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, traders plan to conduct large - scale deliveries of the COMEX copper futures main contract. In August, traders on the New York Comex planned to deliver 28,800 tons of copper under the September contract, the largest single - day delivery since April this year. The Comex copper inventory has reached the highest level in 20 years. Chile's copper production in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month and year - on - year [5] Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 68.12%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points month - on - month. Raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. In the wire and cable sector, the high copper price at the beginning of the week suppressed order release [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 950 tons to 158,875 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1,212 tons to 20,200 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, a change of 5,000 tons from the previous week [7] Tabular Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums and discounts, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage information from September 2, 2025, September 1, 2025, August 26, 2025, and August 3, 2025, including SMM 1 copper prices, spot premiums, LME and SHFE inventory and warehouse receipt data, and various arbitrage indicators [27][28][29]