Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; for the spread between contracts, conduct short - term volatility trading for the UR01 - 05 positive spread during the export window period, and conduct reverse spread trading for UR01 - 05 at high levels after the export window period; no strategy for cross - variety [3] Core View - Recently, manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders. After the price dropped to the previous low, the transaction improved. Some regions have started the autumn agricultural fertilization. Industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade on the operation of compound fertilizers, board factories, etc. Urea production remains high, but there will be more maintenance this week, so production may decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The export window period from August to September continues, and the port inventory is increasing rapidly. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, and the export dynamics need to be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 1, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (-3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,720 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-17), in Henan was - 23 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-17) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 1, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.70% (0.08%). Urea production remains high, but with more maintenance this week, production may decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose with the release of new production capacity [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 1, 2025, the urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-20). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.22% (-1.62%), and that of melamine was 58.50% (+11.90%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of September 1, 2025, the export profit was 1,172 yuan/ton (-99). The export window period from August to September continues, and the port inventory is increasing rapidly. India's NFL has issued a urea import tender [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 1, 2025, the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.06 days (0.00). Industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade on the operation of compound fertilizers, board factories, etc. Some regions have started the autumn agricultural fertilization [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 594,000 tons (+93,000 tons). The port inventory is increasing rapidly [1]
尿素日报：低价成交好转，关注印标量价信息-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-02 07:51