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挺价意愿渐强,猪价维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-02 07:51
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Views - For the pig market, although the expected reduction in pig slaughter next week due to short - term supply adjustment may make spot and near - term contract prices firmer, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged, having little impact on 2026 pig contracts and being favorable for hedging demand to participate at high prices. The current reduction in supply has increased compared to the end of June and July, which needs continuous monitoring [2] - For the egg market, with school stocking completed and tourism and catering demand decreasing, and due to the reduced consumption of end - products of food companies, food companies are purchasing cautiously. The inventory of cold - storage eggs has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost this year obviously weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 13,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 14.17 yuan/kg (unchanged); in Jiangsu, it was 14.36 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.63 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork on September 1 was 20.01 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - The short - term supply adjustment may lead to firmer spot and near - term contract prices, but the overall oversupply pattern persists, having little impact on 2026 contracts [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, down 18 yuan (-0.61%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 3.15 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan. On September 1, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.19 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.00 days, down 0.05 days [3] Market Analysis - With the end of school stocking and the decline in tourism and catering demand, and the cautious purchasing of food companies, the overall demand is declining. Cold - storage egg inventory has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost weak [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]