Guoxin Securities·2025-09-02 07:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth rates have rebounded, with revenue reaching 394.27 billion yuan and net profit at 162.08 billion yuan for the first half of the year, showing year-on-year growth of 2.15% and a decline of 1.37%, respectively [1]. - The company's total assets increased by 10.27% year-on-year to 44.43 trillion yuan, indicating a steady expansion in scale [2]. - The net interest margin has continued to narrow, with a reported figure of 1.40%, down 11 basis points from the previous year, primarily due to significant downward pressure on asset yields [3]. - Non-interest income has shown a strong double-digit growth of 19.64%, reaching 107.56 billion yuan, with investment income increasing by 117.29% to 27.91 billion yuan [3]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% and a provision coverage ratio of 239.40% as of the end of June [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest income of 286.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16%, but with an improved growth rate compared to the first quarter [3]. - The annualized weighted average ROE for the first half of the year was 10.08%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.33%, unchanged from the end of March, while the attention rate decreased to 1.81% [4]. - The provision coverage ratio improved by 2.59 percentage points from March to 239.40% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable earnings, with projected net profits of 343.34 billion yuan, 353.37 billion yuan, and 368.82 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 2.9%, and 4.4% [4][5]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.36 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.46 yuan for the same years [5][8].