Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Brent crude's November contract rose 1.04% overnight. Mid - term supply - demand is loose, but short - term net long positions of funds are low, making oil prices sensitive to geopolitical positives. Consider shorting SC's November contract on rallies and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1] Precious Metals - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations and concerns about Fed independence boost precious metals. International gold prices may hit new highs. Hold long positions and focus on US non - farm payrolls data on Friday [2] Copper - Overnight, copper prices oscillated and closed lower. The probability of short - term copper prices breaking through the 80,000 - yuan mark and expanding the upward trend is increasing. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average and pay attention to the rise in the premium of the 2510 contract's call option with a strike price of 82,000 yuan [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally for four weeks, and inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased slightly at the beginning of the week. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - Shanghai aluminum cross - variety spread may narrow further due to tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustments [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and warehouse receipts. Supply surplus is emerging, and the northwest tender price has dropped significantly. It is in a weak trend but may not fall deeply after breaking through the cost of high - cost production capacity. Pay attention to the support at the June low of 2830 yuan to the 3000 - yuan mark [6] Zinc - SMM's zinc social inventory rose to 146,300 tons, pressuring zinc prices. In September, smelter maintenance will increase, and zinc output is expected to decrease. LME zinc inventory is low, and there is strong support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. It is expected to oscillate in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term at the 23,000 - 23,500 - yuan range [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply. Concerns about political unrest in Indonesia may push up the price of the nickel industry chain. Short - term trading should be oscillatory, suspending the short - selling strategy [9] Tin - After strong two - way fluctuations, tin prices closed with a positive line overnight. LME Singapore warehouse inventory increased. There is a shortage of concentrate in the domestic tin market. Hold short - term long positions based on the 271,000 - yuan level and avoid chasing the rise [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated weakly. Total market inventory decreased slightly to 141,000 tons. The market is focused on the 930 - term expectation. Adopt a bullish strategy with risk control [11] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, driven by polysilicon sentiment. In September, supply surplus is expected to intensify. Temporarily observe the support at 8300 yuan/ton. If it breaks, consider short - selling lightly [12] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly due to a leading company's "industry restructuring plan" and the "self - discipline production limit" in September. The policy's short - term implementation needs verification. Pay attention to the resistance at 53,000 yuan/ton and control positions [13] Group 2: Steel and Iron Ore Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to decline slightly. Rebar's apparent demand improved, but inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and output declined, and inventory also increased. The market is under short - term pressure, and pay attention to the improvement in building material demand [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore's overnight futures oscillated. Global shipments reached a new high this year, and domestic arrivals rebounded. Iron - water production may decline significantly this week. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke - Coke prices rebounded at the end of the session. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented. Inventory decreased slightly, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Prices are under short - term pressure [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices mainly declined during the session and rebounded at the end. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory increased. It is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and prices are under short - term pressure [17] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is good, and manganese ore prices have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [18] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is okay, and supply has increased significantly, with inventory slightly decreasing [19] Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market freight rates are in a downward channel. The impact of geopolitical events on the market is short - term. The market is under pressure. Pay attention to airlines' empty - sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week. If the scale is smaller than last year, the market may decline further [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As of the end of July, Singapore and China's bunker fuel sales decreased year - on - year, and domestic refinery production enthusiasm was low. LU is under pressure, while FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [21] Asphalt - Factory and social inventories of asphalt continued to decline. Asphalt futures rose against the trend. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy of going long on the crack spread between BU and SC10 [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - September's CP was stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Import costs and domestic demand rebounded, supporting the spot price. The short - term futures market is stronger in the near - term and weaker in the far - term [23] Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - Urea's daily output decreased slightly but remained high year - on - year. Some compound fertilizer enterprises limited production, and agricultural fertilizer preparation was slow. Inventory at production enterprises increased. During India's tender period, the market sentiment may change [24] Methanol - Methanol's autumn maintenance is ending, and domestic supply is increasing, with production enterprises accumulating inventory. However, downstream demand is expected to improve due to better economics and pre - holiday stocking, so the market outlook is positive [25] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, breaking through 6000 yuan/ton at night. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but pay attention to the downstream rhythm [26] Styrene - Styrene's trend is weak. Crude oil may fluctuate widely, and pure benzene may be weak, providing no support. Demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory has increased significantly, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Ethylene's downstream demand is mixed, and polypropylene's supply pressure is increasing, with weak downstream orders [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak due to high supply and low demand. Caustic soda is relatively strong, but the profit is good, so future supply may increase. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda may oscillate widely [29] PX and PTA - Night - session PX drove PTA to rise first and then fall, oscillating. Terminal demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand improvement is limited. Pay attention to device dynamics, oil prices, and polyester's production increase [30] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol's night - session price dropped to the 4400 - yuan mark. Domestic production increased, and port inventory rose slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to policies and the peak - season demand [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber's supply - demand is stable, and its price follows the cost. New capacity this year is limited, and the peak - season demand may boost the market. Bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues. Pay attention to petrochemical policies [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - Last night, soybean meal futures increased in position and oscillated upwards. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. Domestically, import costs limit the decline of soybean meal. Supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter but may be short in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, soybean oil and palm oil rebounded. Short - term price declines released negative factors, and concerns about supply in Indonesia exist. Domestic soybean supply is loose in the near - term and uncertain in the far - term. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Consider buying on dips in the long - term [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures market was closed. Global rapeseed supply will be seasonally loose. China's rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short - term [38] Soybean No. 1 - After recent price declines, the price of domestic soybean futures rebounded as short - sellers reduced positions. Policy - driven auctions increased supply. New soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Pay attention to the new - season opening price [39] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose last night. New - season corn may have a good harvest. Short - term, the market may oscillate stably. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may decline at the bottom [40] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures opened high and closed low on Monday. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. Supply is expected to increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. The price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to policies and supply release [41] Eggs - Egg futures increased in position on Monday. Spot prices did not rise strongly in the autumn semester. Old - hen culling increased, and chick replenishment was low in August. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year and pay attention to short - sellers' exit in near - month contracts [42] Cotton - US cotton oscillated weakly last week. US cotton signing data improved. China - US negotiations are ongoing. Brazilian cotton's harvest is slow but the yield is expected to be good. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with strong support below. Buy on dips [43] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, and inventory pressure is low. The 25/26 sugar - cane production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] Apples - Apple futures oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples have high prices, but the supply in the 25/26 season may not change much. The price may rise in the short - term but lacks long - term bullish factors. Temporarily observe [45] Wood - Wood futures oscillated. Foreign prices rose, but domestic prices increased slightly. Imports may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. The supply - demand situation improved, but peak - season demand has not started. Temporarily observe [46] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly yesterday. Port inventory declined slightly, but it is still high year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [47] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated strongly yesterday, with the ChiNext Index performing well. Futures contracts of stock indices rose. Shanghai's mortgage policy was adjusted. The market has an optimistic expectation of factors such as Fed rate cuts. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect is weakening. In September, domestic monetary policy may be loosened. The yield curve is expected to steepen [49]
国投期货：综合晨报-20250902
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-02 07:54