原油日报：纳亚拉炼厂因制裁无法进口中东原油-20250902

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.10%, at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - In June, US crude oil production hit a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products rose to the highest level since October 2024. US LNG production increased by 12,000 barrels per day, reaching 748,400 barrels per day [1] - Saudi Aramco and Iraq's SOMO suspended oil sales to Nayara Energy. Nayara's August crude imports rely entirely on Russia due to payment difficulties caused by sanctions [1] - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep oil production unchanged this weekend, halting previous production increases. IEA warns of significant supply surplus by year - end [1] - Indian refiners are buying more US crude oil, which may help reduce India's trade surplus with the US [1] - ONGC executives say they'll keep buying Russian oil if prices are right [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Saudi Arabia is artificially controlling oil shipments. Despite Dubai prices being strong, eastern refiners have more options due to increased Latin American supply and open arbitrage windows [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term, oil prices will trade in a range; medium - term, bearish allocation is recommended [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts [4]