油料日报：政策调控稳定豆一，花生供给受天气影响-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Soybean strategy: Neutral [3] - Peanut strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a divergence between the domestic and imported soybean markets. Policy - driven reserve soybean sales keep the supply abundant, and the demand is stable. The market focuses on international economic and trade relations and policy signals [2]. - The peanut futures fluctuated strongly. With the end of the spring peanut supply peak and less old - crop inventory, rain has affected peanut supply, and some oil mills' trial purchases sent positive signals [3]. Market Analysis - Soybean Futures - The closing price of the Douyi 2511 contract was 3965.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton or +0.51% from the previous day [1]. Spot - The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 255, down 40 with a 32.14% change from the previous day. The prices in Northeast China were stable but trading was quiet. New bean prices were not optimistic due to continuous state - reserve auctions [1]. Market Situation - Policy promotes reserve soybean sales, keeping supply abundant. Demand runs stably. The market is tracking international economic and trade negotiations, and policy is the key factor affecting the market [2]. Market Analysis - Peanut Futures - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7830.00 yuan/ton, up 46.00 yuan/ton or +0.59% from the previous day [3]. Spot - The average peanut spot price was 8450.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton or +0.48% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 270.00, down 46.00 with a - 14.56% change. The national average price of common peanuts was stable at 4.21 yuan/jin, and prices in some areas rose due to rain [3]. Market Situation - The spring peanut supply peak is over, and old - crop inventory is low. Rain affects peanut supply, and farmers are more reluctant to sell. Some oil mills' trial purchases sent positive signals, but the overall trading atmosphere is still dull [3].