周度经济观察：经济总体平稳，股市中枢抬升-20250902

Economic Overview - The PMI data for August indicates that despite a significant decline in July, the economic downturn is stabilizing, with industrial prices expected to rise, halting the decline in nominal growth[2] - In July, industrial enterprise profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but this was an improvement of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The service sector PMI for August rose to 50.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, reaching a new high for the year, indicating recovery in consumer spending during the summer[7] Market Trends - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating above 3800 points, driven by increased trading volume and a shift from safe assets to risk assets[9] - The current regulatory environment remains friendly, with no significant changes expected that could disrupt the ongoing bull market, which is characterized by a gradual upward trend in asset prices[9] - The expansion of active credit creation and the transition of retail and institutional investors towards risk assets are positively impacting the equity market[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and unexpected policy changes that could affect market stability[3] - The upcoming economic data for August will be crucial in confirming the economic position, especially after significant declines in credit and investment indicators in July[8] - The reliance on government bond issuance for social financing may face challenges as the issuance is expected to taper off in the third quarter, impacting credit expansion and asset prices[10]