印尼1-7月棕榈油出口量增11%，StoneX巴西 25/26年大豆产量料为1.782亿吨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents overnight market conditions, key fundamental information, macro - news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking in the futures market, covering multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Brent crude oil (ICE) closed at $68.16, with a previous - day increase of 1.04% and an overnight increase of 0.01%. WTI crude oil (NYMEX) closed at $64.61, with a previous - day increase of 0.94% and an overnight decrease of 0.12%. The US dollar index was at 97.67, down 0.17%. The exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar showed different changes [1]. - For DCE futures, there were differences in spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes in different regions for palm oil 2601, soybean oil 2601, and soybean meal 2601 [1]. 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1 Production Area Weather - From September 6th to 10th, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US is expected to be low, and precipitation is uneven. In the Midwest of the US, there will be local rain in the past two days with low temperatures. The crop yield may decline due to drought in some areas [2][4]. 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - From January to July 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 13.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.95%. The Planters' Association of Ceylon called for the lifting of the palm oil planting ban, and the government showed a positive attitude [6]. - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be a record 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. UkrAgro Consult expected it to reach 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase. Argentina's agricultural exports in August decreased by 25% year - on - year and 55% compared to July [7]. - The Baltic Dry Index was basically flat on Monday. The freight rate of capesize ships increased, while that of panamax ships was weak [8]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 1st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 15,500 tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons (68%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 121,000 tons, a decrease of 166,900 tons from the previous day [10]. - As of August 29th (week 35), the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions of China was 2.5069 million tons, a 4.06% increase from the previous week and an 18.86% increase year - on - year [10]. - As of September 1st, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 674,298 tons, an increase of 3,279 tons from the previous week. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased compared to last Friday [11]. 3.3 Macro - news 3.3.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.6%. Oil traders expect OPEC+ to maintain crude oil production at this weekend's meeting [13]. - The unemployment rate in the eurozone in July was 6.2%, in line with expectations. The final manufacturing PMI in August was 50.7, slightly higher than expected [13]. 3.3.2 Domestic News - On September 1st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1072, up 42 points (yuan depreciation). The People's Bank of China conducted 182.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [15]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On September 1st, 2025, the net outflow of funds from the futures market was 1.074 billion yuan. Among them, commodity futures had a net inflow of 14.186 billion yuan (agricultural product futures had a net outflow of 239 million yuan, chemical futures had a net inflow of 1.78 billion yuan, black - series futures had a net outflow of 1.495 billion yuan, and metal futures had a net inflow of 14.14 billion yuan), and stock index futures had a net outflow of 15.26 billion yuan [18].