煤炭行业周报：煤炭多空交织，政策加持不悲观-20250902

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing mixed signals, with policies supporting a less pessimistic outlook. Despite short-term price declines due to reduced demand and supply constraints, the overall price drop is expected to be limited due to low port inventories and production checks [4][40] - The focus remains on high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and dividends, as the coal sector underperformed compared to the broader market indices [5][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector underperforming the index. In July, profits of large industrial enterprises fell by 1.5% year-on-year, narrowing by 2.8 percentage points from June. High-tech manufacturing sectors showed rapid profit growth [5][40] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the coal sector index fell by 2.76% [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have slightly decreased, with supply constraints due to continuous rainfall affecting production. The utilization rate of thermal coal mines is at 88.6%, down by 1.4% [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in southern power plants is at 246.1 million tons, up by 100,000 tons week-on-week, but overall demand is expected to decline as the peak summer season ends [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but slightly declining, with supply affected by safety inspections and mine accidents. The utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.2% [24][25] - Demand remains weak, with steel mills primarily purchasing based on necessity rather than speculative stockpiling [24][25] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim has increased, while shipping prices have significantly decreased. The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is at 38.95 yuan/ton, down by 9.60 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] Industry News - The coal industry is seeing advancements in technology and market dynamics, with several private coal companies making it to the top 500 list of Chinese private enterprises. The focus is on enhancing operational efficiency and adapting to market changes [36][38]