新能源及有色金属日报：有色板块整体偏强情况下，铅价或暂时维稳-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side is continuously declining, and there are more maintenance activities in smelters. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, the purchasing willingness is low, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has accumulated. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.07/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,854 lots, a decrease of 3,999 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,017 lots, an increase of 1,835 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,780 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted prices at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted prices at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some holders quoted prices at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted prices at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. The lead price was consolidating, and downstream buyers made purchases on dips, resulting in relatively better spot transactions in some regions [2] Inventory - On September 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 1, the LME lead inventory was 259,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Given the current situation of weak supply and demand in the lead market and the uncertainty of consumption impact, the lead price is expected to remain volatile in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]