有色金属月报（电解铜）：美联储9月降息预期几无悬念，传统消费淡季转旺季支撑铜价-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - Copper Concentrate: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - Scrap Copper: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - Blister Copper: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - Electrolytic Copper: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - Copper Products Enterprises: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - Copper Rods: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - Copper Wires and Cables: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - Copper Enameled Wires: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - Copper Strips: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - Copper Foils: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - Copper Tubes: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - Brass Rods: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].