镍与不锈钢周报：关注印尼骚乱进展-20250902

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For electrolytic nickel, wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton due to loose supply - demand and high production despite supply concerns from the riots and fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations [3][90]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton because of increased production, average demand, but strong cost support [4][116]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 1.75% weekly, with trading volume reaching 671,400 lots (+263,900) and open interest at 89,600 lots (-21,800). LME nickel rose 2.13% weekly, with trading volume at 28,300 lots (-900) [10]. - The basis showed a premium of 850 yuan/ton [12]. 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, while the shipping price from the Philippines to China increased [18]. - In June, Philippine nickel ore exports rose. In July, China's nickel ore imports reached 5.01 million tons, up 15.2% month - on - month and 43.6% year - on - year [22]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals decreased by 308,200 tons, and port inventories increased by 540,000 wet tons [24]. Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose 12.5 yuan/nickel point, and 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron rose 20 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and that to scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In July, China's nickel pig iron imports were 836,000 tons, down 19.7% month - on - month but up 1.8% year - on - year. August imports are expected to be flat [34]. - Nickel iron mills' losses shrank, and the operating rate increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production and operating rate rose, and in September, Indonesia's did the same. Nickel iron inventory decreased [36][41][43]. Electrolytic Nickel - In September, the operating rate and production of refined nickel increased, and export profitability expanded [47][52]. - In July, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel increased [56]. 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [61]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased by 6.7% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year, while imports decreased by 33.3% month - on - month and 39.0% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [65]. New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was minimal [71]. - In September, the production plan of ternary precursors increased by 12.9% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year, while that of ternary materials decreased by 1.5% month - on - month but increased by 26.2% year - on - year [74]. - In August, the production plan of nickel sulfate decreased by 2.5% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year [76]. - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month but up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month but up 27.4% year - on - year [81]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [82]. - Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons [86]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte [89]. 1.5 Market Outlook for Nickel - Strategy: Wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. - Operating range: 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. - Logic: Supply - side factors include stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals, and increased port inventories; narrowing losses for domestic iron mills, decreased domestic production plans, increased Indonesian production plans, and reduced nickel iron inventories; increased refined nickel production and expanded export profitability. Demand - side factors are decreased ternary material production plans, increased precursor production plans, increased stainless - steel mill production plans, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory - side factors are decreased pure nickel social inventory and stable bonded - area inventory. Overall, despite Fed rate - cut uncertainties and supply concerns from the riots, high pure nickel production leads to loose supply - demand and expected wide - range price fluctuations [90]. 2.2 Cost and Profit for Stainless Steel - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices increased, providing strong cost support [97]. - The losses of 200 - series stainless steel widened, those of 300 - series narrowed, and those of 400 - series widened [101]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspects of Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [105]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased, and imports decreased. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [108]. 2.4 Inventory Side for Stainless Steel - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. 200 - series inventory increased, while 300 - series and 400 - series decreased [114]. 2.5 Market Outlook for Stainless Steel - Strategy: Wait and see. - Operating range: 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton. - Logic: With increased production, average demand, strong cost support, and overall and 300 - series inventory reduction, the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate within a range [116].