债券策略月报：2025年9月中债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250902

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic data for August shows signs of weakness, with most indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, investment, and real estate sales falling below previous values, while only exports accelerated [3][5][85] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed a nearly 10-year high, driven by improved market risk appetite under the influence of wide credit policies [3][4] - The report highlights a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy as the main logic in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.7925% during the month [3][4][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis reveals that the manufacturing PMI for July marginally increased to 49.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy for the third quarter [5][29] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy has been relatively supportive, with significant net injections of funds in August, including a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan [24][71] - The bond market strategy suggests adopting a barbell strategy to balance liquidity and yield, especially if the 10-year government bond yield breaks the 1.8% resistance level [6][85] Group 3 - The report discusses the government bond issuance situation, indicating that local government bond issuance in August was 977.6 billion yuan, which is lower than planned by 183.2 billion yuan [19] - It is projected that the supply pressure of government bonds in September may decrease compared to August, with an expected net financing scale of 1.3 trillion yuan [19][20] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance is influenced by the dynamics of the stock market, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect expected to weaken in September [85] Group 4 - The analysis of the overseas economic environment indicates that the process of de-dollarization has slowed, while downward pressure on the US economy has begun to emerge [73][84] - The report highlights that foreign investment in China's bond market has been on the rise, with foreign holdings reaching 4.39 trillion yuan by June [73][76] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could impact the Chinese bond market, necessitating close monitoring of overseas economic data [77][84]