光伏行业2025年半年报总结：行业基本面筑底，盈利修复可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The industry is gradually bottoming out, with expectations for profit recovery driven by policy adjustments and supply-demand improvements [6][30] - Domestic installation driven by a rush in demand has led to significant growth in the first half of 2025, with global installations expected to continue increasing [10][19] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Installation Growth - The domestic rush in installations has resulted in a doubling of installed capacity in the first half of 2025, with a forecast of 270-300 GW for the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [10][11] - From January to July 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations reached 223.25 GW, a year-on-year increase of 81% [10][11] 2. Performance Under Pressure - The photovoltaic sector's core companies reported revenues of 391.99 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [30][31] - In Q2 2025, revenues were 217.44 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year but up 24.6% quarter-on-quarter [30][33] - The overall profit margin is under pressure due to low prices across the supply chain, with a net profit loss of 7.34 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [41][43] 3. Inventory and Production Capacity - Inventory pressures remain significant across the supply chain, with many segments experiencing high inventory levels despite some reductions in Q2 2025 [30][31] - Fixed asset growth has slowed, indicating limited new production capacity additions, with most segments seeing growth rates below 10% [30][31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable operations and potential for profit recovery, particularly in the silicon material and integrated component sectors [6][30] - Companies recommended include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar among others [6][30]