烧碱、PVC强弱比较分析

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The chlor-alkali - PVC industry is currently in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation. The downstream of caustic soda, such as the alumina industry, is more prosperous than the downstream of PVC, about 60% of whose terminal demand is related to real estate. The high - level operation rate of the alumina industry and new capacity additions in 2025 support the demand for caustic soda. As long as the profit of caustic soda can cover the loss of PVC, chlor - alkali integrated plants may maintain a high operation rate. The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts [2][13][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain of Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: Chemical name is sodium hydroxide (NaOH), with solid and liquid forms. The main production process is the ion - exchange membrane electrolysis method. Its cost mainly comes from electricity (60%) and raw salt (20%). It is mainly used in alumina production (over 30% consumption), and also widely used in other industries. Co - produced with it are liquid chlorine and hydrogen [4][5]. - PVC: A polymer of vinyl chloride monomer, mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (about 80% of production) and the ethylene method (about 20% of production) in China. Its downstream consumption is mainly in the construction industry (over 60% consumption) [5][6]. - Chlor - Alkali Balance: In the chlor - alkali production process, 1 ton of caustic soda is accompanied by 0.886 tons of liquid chlorine. The downstream demands of the two products are different. When caustic soda demand is good and its price rises, liquid chlorine production increases, and may lead to oversupply and price decline, resulting in the "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" situation [8]. 3.2 Current Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Caustic Soda and PVC - Profit Situation: About 90.9% of PVC production capacity in China is equipped with caustic soda production devices. The industry is in a "subsidizing chlorine with caustic soda" pattern. The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong in August 2025 was 1500 - 1700 yuan/ton, while PVC had a loss of (- 1000) - (- 250) yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, and in the northwest region was 1300 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][13][14]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China sample enterprises decreased by 6.37% from August 20 to August 27. The PVC inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, while the PVC inventory in production enterprise factories decreased [16][18]. - Downstream Demand Situation: The planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation from the end of 2024 to 2025 is 1230 tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of about 10%. The monthly production of viscose staple fiber has been increasing since June - August 2025, and its inventory is low. In August 2025, the PVC powder production increased by 4.62% compared with July, and the annual cumulative production from January - August increased by 2.67% compared with the same period in 2024. The PVC supply is expected to remain high in September, and the domestic demand is expected to improve slightly but limitedly [20][26][27]. 3.3 Market Outlook The situation of strong caustic soda and weak PVC may continue until the real - estate market improves significantly or the comprehensive profit of upstream chlor - alkali integrated plants incurs continuous losses, forcing upstream production cuts. Otherwise, the weak situation of PVC is difficult to change in the short term [37].