有色金属周报（铅）：终端暂无起色，铅价维持区间整理-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and high inventory levels. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased 0.45% to 16,725 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.60% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased 0.20% to 1,991 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Lead Concentrate: The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The forward supply of imported ore is expected to be tight, and the TC quotation is falling. Domestic ore TC adjustment is relatively stable, and smelters prefer domestic ore. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 90 US dollars/dry ton [3][27]. - Scrap Batteries: Due to poor terminal consumption, the recycling volume of scrap batteries is limited. As the production of secondary lead decreases, the demand for scrap batteries weakens, and the price of scrap batteries has slightly declined. As of August 29, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period [3][41]. 3.3 Supply Side - Primary Lead: The production of primary lead has increased and decreased simultaneously, with overall relatively stable operation. The production rate of primary lead has increased to 68.33%. Some smelters have maintenance plans in September, which may lead to a reduction in production [28][33]. - Secondary Lead: Due to raw material restrictions and losses, the production rate of secondary lead has continued to decline. The production rate decreased 4.1 percentage points to 35.3%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing a decline [51]. 3.4 Demand Side - The terminal demand for lead - acid batteries has not improved. Dealers' inventories have accumulated, and lead - acid battery companies mainly produce based on sales, resulting in limited purchases of lead ingots. The production rate of lead - acid batteries decreased 1.05 percentage points to 70.59% [3][58]. 3.5 Transactions and Inventory - The price of secondary lead is inverted compared to electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with higher cost - effectiveness. Recently, due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and military parade activities, vehicle transportation has been restricted, leading to an accumulation of lead ingot inventory at the production end. - As of August 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,100 tons, showing a slight decline. As of August 28, the factory inventory of primary lead's main delivery brands was 15,700 tons, showing an increase. As of August 29, SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,700 tons, showing an increase, and LME inventory was 259,550 tons, showing a decrease [76][79]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of August 22, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 29, the import profit was - 381.05 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67].