Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 09:33Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The macro - level shows that China's S&P manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5 with the fastest new - order growth since March, and the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are increasing, and smelter profits are further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm and faster supply growth. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, downstream industries are at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising processing enterprise operating rates. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to low levels, downstream purchases on - demand, domestic social inventories have increased, and spot premiums have stabilized at low levels. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and spot premiums have increased, supporting zinc prices. Technically, positions have decreased while prices have rebounded, and the short - selling sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see, or go long lightly on dips [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 2,833 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 217,039 lots, down 10,790 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,797 lots, up 5,781 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 38,955 tons, up 998 tons; the SHFE inventory is 85,980 tons, up 8,142 tons; the LME inventory is 55,875 tons, down 625 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 14.98 US dollars/ton, up 8.86 US dollars; the ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,870 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production in the current month is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 133,400 tons, up 3,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 12.69%, up 0.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 12.69%, up 0.82%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.99%, up 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.68%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a more than three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. China's S&P manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new - order growth since March. The Chinese President announced plans to implement 100 "small but beautiful" livelihood projects in SCO member states, provide 2 billion yuan in free aid to member states this year, and aims to build the SCO Development Bank soon [3].