Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 09:33Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Macroscopically, China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March, and the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom-bust line for the first time in three years. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was mainly affected by factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak-season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventories have remained high, and tin downstream buyers are cautious after the price increase. The spot premium has dropped to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, but the spot premium has risen. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips, focusing on the range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 273,980 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin was -200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,060 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 34,947 lots, down 1,036 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was -2,097 lots, up 729 lots. The LME tin total inventory was 2,155 tons, up 145 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipts were 7,263 tons, up 48 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 273,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,530 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was -480 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 148 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 261,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of tin - coated sheets was 140,700 tons, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - coated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3]. Industry News - The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022, with the fastest growth rates of factory output and new orders in nearly three and a half years. China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March. New orders drove the recovery of manufacturing production, the pace of contraction of new export business slowed down, procurement activities and inventories increased, and business confidence also improved, but enterprises remained cautious in employee recruitment. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China plans to implement 100 "small but beautiful" livelihood projects in member states in need and will provide 2 billion yuan in free aid to member states this year. China's cumulative trade volume with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries has exceeded the target of 2.3 trillion US dollars ahead of schedule, and China will soon establish the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank to provide stronger support for member states' security and economic cooperation [3].