Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 09:27Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions and setting stop - losses to control risks [2] 2. Core View - The inventory apple shipment rhythm is slow, but the overall inventory pressure is small. The market's high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the listing and quality of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8389 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 56,839 lots, a decrease of 1,575 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,819 lots, an increase of 441 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples is 9.54 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons. The storage ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.06 and 0.01 respectively, with Shandong's decreasing by 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,997.6 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars, a decrease of 212,886 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average weekly wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons are 8.69 yuan/kg, 5.7 yuan/kg, and 3.5 yuan/kg respectively. The weekly average early - morning arrival vehicle volumes at Guangdong Jiangmen, Chalong, and Xiaqiao wholesale markets are 14.4, 2.8, and 17.2 vehicles respectively, with Jiangmen and Xiaqiao increasing by 3 and 5 vehicles respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples are 21.38% and 3.22% respectively, with the put option's decreasing by 18.16% [2] Industry News - On September 2, 2025, early - maturing Fuji apples in the western production area were gradually on the market. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods was okay, with obvious price differences based on quality. The quality of Gansu Huaniu apples was better than that of Gala apples, and the price remained stable and weak. Shandong's inventory of Fuji apples continued to be cleared. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.38% on Tuesday. The preliminary estimate of the national apple output is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of August 27, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 33.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.48 million tons from last week. The increase in early - maturing fruit supply affected the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed slowed down year - on - year and month - on - month. The transaction of paper - bagged Gala apples in the western production area ended, and early - maturing Fuji apples were on the market. The overall quality of early - maturing fruits was not good, and the market was worried about the late - maturing Fuji apples. The high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples was due to the excellent fruit rate issue [2]