瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, some newly - added units have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily domestic urea production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of reduced production is relatively high. The domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizers are mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has declined. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but there is an expectation of improvement starting from the 4th. The domestic demand progresses slowly, with some enterprises' shipments falling short of expectations, and the inventory has increased slightly. Although some enterprises have export orders, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1780 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1746 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 41 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position of the main contract is 219382 lots, down 892 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 34318, down 2262; the exchange warehouse receipts are 7205, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 1710 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shandong is 1710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Anhui is 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is - 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. FOB Baltic is 437.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 435 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 600,000 tons, up 99,000 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 1,085,800 tons, up 61,900 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.39%, down 1.6%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, down 1700 tons. The urea export volume is 570,000 tons, up 50. The monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.22%, down 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.5%, up 11.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 153 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 4 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 4,221,200 tons, up 53,000 tons; the weekly melamine output is 28,000 tons, up 4800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,085,800 tons, up 61,900 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.05%. As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, up 99,000 tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 19.76%. As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,349,200 tons, down 11,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [2]