瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda is expected to tighten as more chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance devices increase this week, and there are maintenance plans for multiple domestic chlor - alkali devices in September. The alumina industry has considerable profits and strong willingness for stable and high - yield production, which supports the demand for caustic soda. Non - aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut - down devices have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Spot prices of liquid caustic soda are expected to rise due to improved supply - demand conditions, while the expected future production of caustic soda still suppresses the prices of far - month contracts. Near - month contracts are expected to be stronger than far - month contracts. Technically, SH2601 should focus on the support around 2600 and the pressure around 2760 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2665 yuan/ton, the contract closing price for January is 2665 yuan/ton, and for May is 2738 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 110334 hands, a decrease of 19229 hands; the trading volume is 646082 hands, a decrease of 26006 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 10927 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2718.75 yuan/ton, and the basis is 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 275 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 21st to 28th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.4%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week. As of August 28th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 379,600 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous week and an increase of 28.84% year - on - year. SH2601 fell 0.93% to close at 2665 yuan/ton. On the supply side, two sets of devices in Central China were shut down briefly last week, and one set in Central China and two sets in the Northwest restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.8% to 82.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 85.58%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.2% to 86.02%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.87% to 64.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.25% to 379,600 tons last week [1]