瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, domestically, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously put into the market, weakening traders' confidence in price support and accelerating the sale of remaining grains. With poor breeding profits, sluggish feed sales, and low enthusiasm from feed enterprises to purchase old grains, and deep - processing enterprises relying mainly on contract grains, the market trading is relatively light, and prices continue to run weakly. Recently, due to short - covering, corn futures prices have rebounded from the low level [2]. - For corn starch, as previously overhauled enterprises resume work, the operating rate in the corn starch industry has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. The overall market trading shows no obvious trend, and the supply - demand pattern is clearly oversupplied with high inventory pressure. Affected by the corn rebound, starch prices have risen in a volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2200 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 948162 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75739 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66608 lots, and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 212 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2505 yuan/ton, the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 30 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 196158 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 41054 lots, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 420 cents/bushel, the total position is 1456701 lots (weekly), and the non - commercial net long position is - 70940 lots (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2363.33 yuan/ton, the fair - market price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 1929.52 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 155 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main corn contract is 163.33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are 770,000 tons and 1.75 million tons respectively, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 2.942 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The imported corn volume is 60,000 tons, and the exported corn starch volume is 15,940 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons, the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 1.1402 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01% [2]. - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 122 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and - 81 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.46% and 6.32% respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options of corn are 10.02% and 10.02% respectively [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of August 28, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 6.7%, compared with 3.2% a week ago and 7.7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of August 28, the harvesting of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2024/2025 season has ended, 2 percentage points higher than the 98% a week ago, and the harvesting was also completed in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].