瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].