沥青策略：高开后震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the asphalt futures will fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate and an expected increase in production in September. The demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and investment data. The cost - side support of asphalt is limited due to the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The operation strategy is range operation. The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons or 11.3% month - on - month and an increase of 683,000 tons or 34.1% year - on - year. The start - up rates of downstream industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month. The national asphalt shipments increased by 11.17% to 263,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The resumption of oil extraction in Venezuela by Chevron may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. There are factors both promoting and restricting asphalt demand, and the cost - side support of asphalt is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 1.17% to 3,551 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 3,547 yuan/ton and the highest price at 3,582 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 3,747 to 105,860 lots [2]. - In the basis market, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract fell to - 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month due to the shutdown or conversion to residue production of some devices. The start - up rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data shows that from January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased to - 2.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to 3.2% [4]. - As of the week of August 29, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. As of the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; and the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The acceleration of government bond issuance was the main reason for the increase in the growth rate of the social financing scale [4]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week of August 22, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].