中国中铁（601390）：收入、利润承压，境外业务逆势增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under pressure, but overseas business is experiencing growth [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the impact of local government debt and a slowdown in industry investment [6] - The company's mineral resources business is expected to drive a return to valuation recovery [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,156,734 million, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 25,157 million, down 9.8% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 9.6% [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -796.3 million for the first half of 2025, an increase in cash outflow by 103 million year-on-year [6] - The company’s infrastructure construction revenue for the first half of 2025 was 436.2 billion, down 7.78% year-on-year [6] - The company’s overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 36.97 billion, up 8.34% year-on-year [6]