供应压力有限，现货价格反弹

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report - September 2, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply pressure in the pig market has improved compared to the previous period. In the short term, the supply pressure is not expected to increase significantly, so the spot price of pigs is expected to remain strong. However, in the medium term, the large - weight pig sources and the total pig inventory are still high, so the pig price is expected to be weak in the long - run [3][4][6] - The futures price of pigs is mainly in a volatile state. It has limited reaction to the increase in spot prices, reflecting the large supply pressure. With the recent rebound of spot prices, the futures market may have some stabilizing power, but the overall rebound space is limited. The focus of far - month contracts lies in capacity changes, and the price has certain support [6] Group 4: Summary by Content Spot Market - Today, pig prices across the country still showed an overall upward trend. The average price increased from 13.59 yuan/kg yesterday to 13.76 yuan/kg today [4] - After a rapid decrease in the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises yesterday, it began to increase today. The monthly pig slaughter volume remains at a high level, and overall supply pressure still exists [4] - The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs is generally average. Due to the relatively high price difference between large and small pigs, there is some behavior of holding back pigs for fattening, and the subsequent increase is expected to be limited [4] - The secondary fattening has changed little recently. The enthusiasm for selling is higher than that for entering the market, and the subsequent selling motivation may continue to increase [4] Futures Market - The futures prices of all contracts remained unchanged today compared to yesterday. For example, LH01 was 13,840 yuan, and LH03 was 13,110 yuan [4] - The futures price is mainly in a volatile state, with limited reaction to the increase in spot prices, reflecting the large supply pressure [6] Piglet and Sow Market - The price of piglets this week was 324 yuan, a decrease of 23 yuan from last week; the price of sows was 1,594 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan from last week [4] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan from yesterday; the profit for purchasing piglets for breeding was - 148.41 yuan/head, an increase of 3.40 yuan from yesterday [4] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased from 148,354 heads yesterday to 148,535 heads today, an increase of 181 heads [4] Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remained unchanged at 0.44 yuan/kg; the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increased from 0.03 yuan/kg to 0.06 yuan/kg; the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs increased from 0.1 yuan/kg to 0.14 yuan/kg; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased from 0.13 yuan/kg to 0.2 yuan/kg [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy far - month contracts on dips [7] - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 [7] - Options: Sell far - month put options [7]