甲醇周报：等待做多机会-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long. Methanol's valuation is neutral. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the price of methanol in East China is relatively undervalued compared to downstream, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long in the future [5][41]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [5][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From August 18th to August 29th, methanol prices oscillated downward. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol returned to a weak fundamental situation. The increase in supply from inland coal - to - methanol enterprises and imported methanol led to price downward pressure [5][10][41]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - With the increasing import pressure, the spot is relatively weak. The East China spot basis has weakened, and the near - month futures contracts have also weakened. On August 18th, the East China basis was - 106 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, it was - 151 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was 18 yuan/ton on August 18th and - 11 yuan/ton on August 29th [11]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - Cost and Production: Coal - to - methanol profits are still high. Although the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate decreased slightly, it is still at a high level year - on - year. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart in September, so the upstream production is expected to gradually increase. As of August 28th, the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.07 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly gas - to - methanol production rate was 50.79%, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 4.52 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation rate continues to accelerate. As of the week of August 28th, the total port inventory was 106.6 tons, an increase of 13.18 tons month - on - month and 16.52 tons year - on - year. The inventory in the Northwest region also increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - MTO Demand: The profit of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has improved, and the MTO production rate remains relatively high. As of August 28th, the weekly production rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 82.24%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 0.25 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly production rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally was 78.56%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 2.76 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, so the demand for restocking is low, and the upward driving force for methanol is insufficient [24]. - Traditional Demand: The traditional downstream of methanol includes acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether. Although the production of some traditional downstream industries decreased last week, the downstream profit has improved marginally. The peak season from September to October may boost the demand for methanol [31].