供给扰动再起，价格高位整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both supply and demand increases, but the inventory pressure remains high. In the short - term, affected by macro - sentiment fluctuations and the driving force of polysilicon, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon present a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, due to anti - involution and supply reform, the quotes of holders are firm, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - Industrial Silicon: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, most industrial silicon prices showed a downward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 355 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.06%. The prices of different types of industrial silicon in various regions also decreased to varying degrees [10]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, etc. remained unchanged during this period, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed small fluctuations [10]. - Organic Silicon: The average price of DMC remained unchanged, while the average price of 107 glue decreased by 0.86% and the average price of silicone oil decreased by 0.38% [10]. - Silicon Aluminum Alloy: The average price of ADC12 increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%, while the average price of A356 remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 North - South Increase, Continuous Increment in Supply - Industrial Silicon Supply: In the week of August 28, the number of silicon - enterprise furnaces in operation increased by 12 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 1,980 tons, and its operating rate increased from 58.48% to 62.57% [39]. - Polysilicon Supply: In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, with the monthly output reaching about 110,000 tons. In August, it is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons. Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons [3][68]. 3.3 Improved Transactions, Reduction in Polysilicon Inventory - As of August 28, the total polysilicon inventory decreased to 213,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. Multiple upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments before the end of August, resulting in a significant increase in the trading volume of the polysilicon market and a relatively obvious decline in inventory [3][68]. 3.4 Peak - Season Demand Not Yet Apparent, Weak Organic Silicon Prices - Supply: In August, the DMC operating rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 percentage points, and the output was 223,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,300 tons. Last week, due to anti - involution in the industry, some local devices reduced their loads for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in weekly production [97]. - Demand and Price: The organic silicon prices weakened. As of August 29, the average DMC price remained unchanged, the average 107 glue price decreased by 0.86%, and the average silicone oil price decreased by 0.38%. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and new orders were weak [103]. 3.5 Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate with Minor Fluctuations - Operating Rate: In the week of August 28, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [111]. - Price: The aluminum alloy prices rebounded. As of August 29, the average ADC12 price increased by 1.47%, and the average A356 price remained unchanged [114]. 3.6 High Inventory Pressure - Industrial Silicon Inventory: As of August 28, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 173,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. As of August 29, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, equivalent to 252,300 tons of spot [124]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The industrial silicon supply - demand balance showed different situations in different months. From January 2024 to July 2025, the supply - demand balance fluctuated, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [125].